Strategic competition over influence, regulation and the future governance of Artificial Intelligence.
Artificial Intelligence is becoming a central arena of international competition and cooperation. Governments, technology companies, international organizations, investors and civil society actors are attempting to influence the rules, standards and institutions that will shape the emerging AI ecosystem.
Some actors favour international cooperation and common standards. Others prioritize technological development, economic growth, strategic autonomy or security. The future governance of AI therefore emerges from the interaction of actors pursuing different — and sometimes incompatible — objectives.
In this simulation, participants represent actors operating within this emerging governance system. Every decision affects not only their own position, but also the opportunities and constraints faced by other participants. As the simulation develops, patterns of cooperation, rivalry and accumulation of influence emerge from these interactions.
The central challenge is therefore to understand when, how and with whom to cooperate or compete.
Points represent influence within the emerging governance system. Accumulating influence strengthens an actor's capacity to shape the future development and regulation of Artificial Intelligence.
Each player represents an actor seeking to influence the emerging international governance of Artificial Intelligence.
Depending on the configuration chosen by the Simulation Master, participants may represent actors such as:
Every actor must pursue its own strategic interests while adapting continuously to the decisions made by the rest of the system.
Actors are organized into three strategic blocs. The blocs do not necessarily represent formal alliances. Instead, they represent different approaches to the governance and development of Artificial Intelligence.
This simulation uses a single strategic item.
Influence represents the capacity of an actor to shape the emerging technological and regulatory environment of Artificial Intelligence.
Participants accumulate influence through their allocation of resources and through successful strategic interaction with other actors.
Strategic decisions take place simultaneously at different levels. What benefits an individual actor may not benefit its bloc, and what benefits a bloc may not produce a stable outcome for the system as a whole.
Every actor seeks to preserve and increase its own influence. Individual performance is therefore reflected in the points accumulated throughout the simulation.
Cooperation can increase an actor's points, but may simultaneously strengthen other actors. Competition can weaken rivals, but also consumes resources and exposes actors to strategic responses.
Each strategic bloc pursues a different vision of the future AI ecosystem.
Innovation & Market seeks technological expansion and freedom to innovate.
Power & Security seeks strategic control and aims to prevent excessive concentrations of influence.
Regulation & Rights seeks a balanced and predictable system supported by broad and sustained cooperation.
The development of Artificial Intelligence also creates interests that transcend individual actors and strategic blocs.
Systemic stability, predictable rules, technological development, security and the protection of fundamental rights may all be understood as goods whose preservation depends on the behaviour of multiple actors.
Participants must therefore confront a recurring governance problem: strategies that are individually rational may contribute to collectively unstable outcomes.
There is no single definition of success in the governance of Artificial Intelligence. Participants must distinguish between individual performance, the strategic objectives of their bloc and the overall condition of the governance system.
At the individual level, actors seek to maximize their accumulated influence. The actor with the highest final score has achieved the strongest individual position within the emerging AI governance system.
This bloc succeeds when its members accumulate substantial influence and are able to expand their strategic position without becoming constrained by the other blocs.
This bloc succeeds when it preserves strategic control and prevents the emergence of actors whose accumulation of influence threatens the balance of the system.
This bloc succeeds when influence remains sufficiently balanced and broad, sustained cooperation contributes to the emergence of a stable governance environment.
At the end of the simulation, participants should evaluate not only who accumulated the most influence, but also what type of governance system their decisions produced.
Did cooperation generate a stable framework? Did one actor or bloc become dominant? Did strategic rivalry fragment the system? Did attempts to constrain power prevent innovation, or did unrestricted competition undermine the possibility of common governance?
Individual success, bloc success and a stable governance system do not necessarily coincide.
Information is power.
Every round generates new information about the behaviour of the system. Rational strategic decision-making therefore requires more than pursuing a fixed strategy: participants must interpret what has happened, identify emerging patterns and adapt their decisions.
After each turn, participants can use the available simulation data to examine:
A rational decision depends on your objectives, but also on the information available about the decisions and incentives of others. Use the evidence generated by the simulation to decide when, how and with whom to cooperate or compete.
Download materials and results from previous implementations of The Future of Artificial Intelligence simulation.
Strategic simulation on the international governance of Artificial Intelligence conducted with prospective students and CUNEF students.
Materials coming soon