A strategic simulation in which bullish and bearish investors compete to shape the price of a common stock through five dimensions of market valuation.
The simulation represents a financial market centred on a single listed company. Participants act as investors trying to influence the evolution of its share price. They do not control the price directly: the final movement of the stock emerges from the combined strategic pressure generated by all participants.
The market is divided into two opposing teams. Bulls benefit from an increase in the share price, while Bears benefit from a decrease. Both teams operate simultaneously across the same five valuation factors and may cooperate with allies or compete against other participants using the standard Strategic Simulation Lab rules.
Points represent the resources, information, capital and strategic capacity that investors are able to mobilise in order to affect market expectations. Each turn, participants decide how to distribute their available points among the five valuation factors.
The share begins with a reference price of 100. After every turn, the new price is calculated from the weighted difference between the Bulls' and Bears' results in each item.
Players represent investment funds and market actors taking positions on the same stock. A standard implementation uses twelve participants, six on each side of the market.
Every player belongs to one of two structurally opposed market positions.
Team membership creates a collective interest, but players retain their own individual score. Helping the team and maximising individual performance are therefore related but distinct objectives.
Both teams compete over the same five determinants of stock valuation. Each factor has a different weight in the calculation of the share price.
Expected earnings, margins and the capacity of the company to generate profits. This is the most heavily weighted factor in the valuation.
Technological development, new products and the capacity to generate future competitive advantages and growth.
Investor expectations, credibility, sentiment and the broader perception of the company in financial markets.
Liquidity, debt, solvency and the company's capacity to withstand financial or macroeconomic shocks.
Environmental, social and governance factors that may affect long-term risk, regulation, reputation and access to capital.
At the end of each turn, the points obtained by all Bulls and all Bears are aggregated for each item. Bullish points push the price upwards; bearish points push it downwards. Each effect is multiplied by the weight of the corresponding item.
Price(t) = Price(t-1) + 0.30 × (Bulls Profitability − Bears Profitability) + 0.20 × (Bulls Innovation − Bears Innovation) + 0.20 × (Bulls Market Confidence − Bears Market Confidence) + 0.15 × (Bulls Financial Stability − Bears Financial Stability) + 0.15 × (Bulls Sustainability − Bears Sustainability)
The calculation uses the effective results generated by the simulation in each item after allocation, cooperation and competition have been resolved. The price therefore reflects both resource allocation and strategic interaction.
The simulation separates individual performance from collective market objectives. This creates strategic tensions both within and between teams.
Every player seeks to maximise their own accumulated points. Individual points measure how effectively each investor allocates resources, cooperates and competes throughout the simulation.
A player may therefore outperform other members of the same team even if the team as a whole fails to achieve its market objective.
Bulls share an interest in increasing the stock price. Bears share the opposite interest: reducing it. Team success depends on the aggregate results of all its members across the five weighted items.
Players must therefore decide how far to coordinate with teammates, which valuation factors deserve priority and whether individual advantages justify strategies that may weaken the collective position of their own side.
The market itself is the common arena shared by all players. Information, liquidity, predictability and the credibility of market valuation benefit all participants by making strategic decisions meaningful and comparable.
Unlike the two team objectives, however, the simulation does not assume that a higher or lower stock price is itself a public good. The central collective outcome is the price generated by the interaction of opposing expectations.
The simulation produces separate individual and team outcomes. They should be evaluated independently at the end of the final turn.
The individual winner is the player with the highest accumulated number of points at the end of the simulation, regardless of team membership.
The Bulls win if the final share price is above its initial value of 100. The Bears win if the final share price is below 100. If the final price is exactly 100, neither team wins the market contest.
The final share price records the net effect of competing market expectations. Its evolution across turns allows participants to observe how distributed strategic decisions, cooperation and competition can generate an aggregate market outcome that no individual participant controls.
Individual success and team success do not necessarily coincide. A Bull can finish first individually while the share price falls, and a Bear can perform poorly individually while the bearish team succeeds in driving the market below its initial price.
Results and datasets from previous implementations of this simulation will be made available here.
Data from previous Stock Market simulations will be published after implementation.